SSC Model: Overview and Methodology

5.1 Overview of Spatial and Temporal Models

5.1.1 Spatial Model Considerations
5.1.2 Considerations Regarding Temporal Models
5.1.3 Perspective on CEUS-SSC Models

5.2.1 Approaches to Mmax Estimation in the CEUS
5.2.1.1 Bayesian Mmax Approach
5.2.1.1.1 Two-Priors Distribution Model
5.2.1.1.2 Composite-Prior Distribution Model
5.2.1.1.3 Relative Weights
5.2.1.1.4 Truncation of the Prior Distributions
5.2.1.1.5 Addressing Criticism of the Bayesian Approach
5.2.1.1.6 Application to CEUS Distributed Seismicity Sources
5.2.1.2 Kijko Approach to Mmax Assessment
5.2.1.3 Weights for the Alternative Mmax Approaches
5.2.1.4 Example Mmax Distributions
5.2.2 Other Mmax Issues

5.3 Earthquake Recurrence Assessment

5.3.1 Smoothing to Represent Spatial Stationarity
5.3.2 Smoothing Approach
5.3.2.1 Development of Penalized-Likelihood Approach and Formulation
5.3.2.1.1 Model for the Penalized-Likelihood Function of Recurrence Parameters
5.3.2.1.2 Modeling the Joint Distribution of Recurrence Parameters
5.3.2.1.3 Development of Alternative Recurrence Maps
5.3.2.2 Application of the Model and Specification of Model Parameters
5.3.2.2.1 Calculations
5.3.2.2.2 Sensitivity to Magnitude Weights, Strength of Prior, and Alternative Maps
5.3.2.2.3 Resulting Maps
5.3.2.3 Exploration of Model Results in Parameter Space 
5.3.2.3.1 Regions of High Activity
5.3.2.3.2 Nemaha Ridge Area
5.3.2.3.3 Regions of Low Activity
5.3.2.4 Consideration of Constant b-Value Kernel Approaches
5.3.2.5 Comparison to EPRI-SOG Approach
5.3.2.6 Assessment of the Lombardi Study
5.3.3 Estimation of Recurrence for RLME Sources
5.3.3.1 Estimation of Occurrence Rates for the Poisson Model
5.3.3.1.1 Earthquake Count in a Time Interval
5.3.3.1.2 Earthquake Recurrence Intervals
5.3.3.1.3 Representation of Continuous Distribution for ; by a Discrete Approximation
5.3.3.1.4 Use of Fault Slip Rates
5.3.3.2 Estimation of Occurrence Rates for a Renewal Model
5.3.3.3 Incorporating Uncertainty in the Input
5.3.3.4 RLME Magnitude Distribution

5.4 Assessment of Future Earthquake Characteristics

5.4.1 Tectonic Stress Regime
5.4.2 Sense of Slip/Style of Faulting
5.4.3 Strike and Dip of Ruptures
5.4.4 Seismogenic Crustal Thickness
5.4.5 Fault Rupture Area
5.4.6 Rupture Length-to-Width Aspect Ratio
5.4.7 Relationship of Rupture to Source Zone Boundaries